Skip to content
Offer a property

Grocery-anchored retail in the investment market – 2026 update

Lower volume, many deals, higher rates: what current market reports say about food retail and retail park properties in autumn 2026.

How is the investment market for supermarkets, discounters and retail parks developing? We reviewed current market reports from major brokerage firms together with recent figures from the ECB and the German Retail Federation.

Transactions: lower volume, smaller deals

According to BNP Paribas Real Estate, just under €3.1bn was invested in German retail property in the first three quarters of 2026, around 25% less than in the same period of the previous year. BNP attributes the decline mainly to a one-off effect in the prior year, the takeover of the Porta Group by XXXLutz. BNP puts the average deal size at €17m, a historically low level, while the number of deals was above average.

Food and retail parks remain the largest segment

According to BNP, the food and retail park sector accounted for more than 45% of retail volume and 57% of deals in the first three quarters of 2026. For Q1 2026, JLL reported a retail warehouse share of 63%, of which 30 percentage points were food retail and 24 percentage points retail parks. The figures refer to different periods and segment definitions and are therefore not directly comparable.

Yields: slightly rising or stable, depending on the source

At the end of Q3 2026, BNP Paribas Real Estate reports net prime yields of 5.00% for supermarkets and discounters and 4.75% for retail parks, both slightly higher according to BNP. JLL, by contrast, describes prime yields for grocery-anchored retail warehouse products as stable in Q3 2026; for retail parks, JLL most recently stated 4.6% for Q1 2026. The figures come from different data sets and differ from each other.

Interest rates: policy rates rising again

On 10 September 2026, the ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points, following a first increase in June. The deposit facility rate has stood at 2.50% since 16 September 2026. The ECB cites persistent inflationary pressure resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. JLL put the yield on ten-year German government bonds at around 3.5% in early October 2026.

Consumption: subdued expectations

The German Retail Federation (HDE) expects retail sales of €697.4bn in 2026, an increase of 2% in nominal and 0.5% in real terms. The HDE confirmed this February forecast in July 2026. In its survey at that time of around 600 companies, 65% expected sales below the previous year. The HDE releases do not include a separate forecast for food retail.

Outlook from market observers

BNP Paribas Real Estate considers further increases in retail prime yields possible by year-end. At the same time, it sees a pipeline, particularly for food and retail park assets, that is larger than the volume to date would suggest. For the German investment market as a whole in 2026, BNP expects around €32bn and JLL €35bn to €37bn. Neither firm expects a pronounced year-end rally.

This article summarises publicly available market reports; it is neither investment advice nor an offer.

Would you like to sell a grocery-anchored property? See our acquisition profile

Sources

Back to overview

Offer a property